Thoughts on the North Korean Situation

So obviously tensions between the ROK and DPRK have been escalating this year, starting with the Cheonan sinking in March and ramping up again yesterday after the North decided it'd be a bright idea to shell a military base and civilian homes on Yeonpyeong Island. Normally, these little "incidents" between the two Koreas seem to pass by with minimal fanfare; Koreans in Seoul and the surrounding areas, despite being less than 40 kilometers from the border, go about their lives and casually shrug it all off as being just a fact of life. But yesterday, I and at least a couple of friends noted that, for the first time we've seen, Koreans themselves appeared slightly nervous, which got me thinking about the situation in more depth.

Why would some Korean people be more nervous about this event than any other past incident? What makes this one different? I think the answer lies in the fact that this marks the first time since the armistice in 1953 that the North has fired artillery on actual Korean territory, as opposed to blowing up a ship or a plane or shooting into the water. It shows a casual disregard for the (thankfully very few) civilians on Yeonpyeong Island, which is alarming to civilians in other areas of the country. Even with the small yet noticeable uptick in concern, however, it is so important to note that there has been no panic, no change in behavior or the way Koreans are living their lives. There was no extra traffic heading out of Seoul last night, no rush to buy plane tickets to flee the country, no sirens blaring or people running. I think most people recognize that there is nothing to do but wait and see what happens and to trust that the Korean and US militaries have things under control.

The village "trenches".

I feel hyper-aware of the feelings of those around me by sheer dint of the fact that Haseong is so close to the Northern Limit Line, which is the maritime border between Korea and North Korea. Only a couple kilometers north of our village is the mouth of the Han River, across which lies North Korean soil. But ever since I moved here in April, I've seen how vigilant and mobilized the Korean army is at all times. There are small military installations and checkpoints scattered all around Ganghwa Island and the northern half of Gimpo city, including the area around Haseong. There are extensive chain-link fences ringed with barbed wire running along the riverbanks for miles and miles. I've heard military helicopters fly overhead during the school day. I've gone hiking on Munsusan with my co-teachers and witnessed huge groups of soldiers running up and down the mountain on training exercises. I've taken walks through the woods next to my village and stumbled across camouflage nets and ditches reinforced with sandbags, clearly intended to be used if the ROK soldiers ever need to dig in to defend their country. Usually, I look past all of these things; they seem oddly innocuous and mundane. But it's comforting to realize that the infrastructure is here, the systems are in place, the training is underway to ensure that in a worst-case scenario the appropriate steps will be taken immediately.

Preparations.

And what could possibly bring about this worst-case scenario? What is the likelihood of the armistice being broken and the two countries actually descending into a second Korean war? I'm not sure, but then again, how can anyone be sure? The most knowledgable policy wonks and politicians in the world can propound all the theories they want but this type of thing can't truly be predicted (just look at World War I). Realistically, it seems absurd to think that the North would be idiotic enough to put themselves in a position to fall so incredibly hard. The DPRK is a poor country with a lot of problems. When the occasional North Korean refugee makes it to the South, they are shocked and overwhelmed by the modern life here, but they still choose to stay. How many South Koreans "escape" to the "paradise" of the DPRK? Um, I think the number is about zero. Which begs the question, if hostilities resume, does the North honestly believe it won't be facing a wave of defections? On a similar note, it's a safe bet that China, North Korea's biggest (if not only) ally, absolutely does not want millions upon millions of starving refugees rushing across the very long, and largely open, border it shares with the country. Which means China will undoubtedly be putting heavy pressure on North Korea to rein it in and chill the eff out. There's no use rocking the status quo boat.

At the same time, the leaders of North Korea are, let's face it, both desperate and crazy, which I think is the most volatile combination of personality traits there is. Kim Jong-Il is allegedly desperate for the North Korean military to accept his youngest son, the (by all accounts) utterly pathetic Kim Jong-Un, as his successor and the government is desperate to wield some form of nuclear power sooner rather than later. The DPRK makes stupidly bold maneuvers like this just because it can, because it has something "to prove" to its enemies, and because so far it's been able to get away with it with minimal retaliation. The desperate and defiant attitude can't last forever though. Eventually, something has to give on one side or the other. I hope that, when it does happen, it can happen quickly and with minimal bloodshed. It would also be awesome if the inevitability of history could freaking wait until I leave the damn country. But if we're unlucky, and the worst happens, at least I know the US Embassy, the US and Korean militaries, and the Korean people will do everything they can to protect everyone they can. I mean, really, the odds are higher that I could get hit by a car tomorrow. We can't ever know anything that's going to happen in the future, so there's no point living in fear and anxiety. I just have to keep telling myself that.

I also find it helps if I put the behavior of North Korea in a perspective that is more familiar and relevant to everyday life. In my mind, North Korea is the international equivalent of a really scared and insecure schoolyard bully who thinks the world owes him everything and doesn't mind being hated if he thinks everyone is scared of him, but secretly knows that he is a loser that will be expelled forever if he does anything more serious than occasionally punch another kid in the nose. And right now, the eyes of every student, teacher, and principal in school are zeroed right in on that bully just waiting to see if he does anything stupid. Waiting for him to slip up. I don't see there being any reason to worry.